XAU/USD Forecast: A Scenario-Based Framework

Overview

A forecast is more useful as a set of conditional scenarios than as a promised target. Track what would support, weaken or invalidate each view, and update probabilities when evidence changes.

Key checks

• Define bullish, neutral and bearish cases before the event.
• Use real yields, the dollar, central-bank demand and risk sentiment as separate inputs.
• Write invalidation conditions and position-risk limits before acting.

How to use this guide

Start with the facts, compare independent drivers, write alternative scenarios, and record what would change your view. Never infer certainty from one indicator.